Welcome to a very special edition recorded in front of a live audience in Lisbon, featuring renowned author and historian, Yuval Noah Harari. In today's discussion, we'll be exploring Harari's perspective on humanity – its past, present, and future. Join us as we delve deep into the current state of humanity in 2023, and the challenges we face in an increasingly technologically advanced world.
With the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential impact on our lives, it is crucial to understand its implications and possible challenges. The future is uncertain as we juggle threats of ecological collapse and technological disruption. At the same time, we must confront the growing global tensions and societal divides that place humanity on the brink of collapse.
Key Takeaways
- Humanity faces a complex future, grappling with ecological challenges and rapid technological advancements
- The rise of AI brings unprecedented opportunities, as well as potential risks and unforeseen consequences
- Regulating AI presents challenges, such as global cooperation and ensuring responsible development and deployment
Humanity in 2023
Paradox of Wise Humans
In 2023, humanity finds itself at a paradoxical crossroads. Referred to as Homo sapiens, or “wise humans,” our species possesses powers of creation and destruction previously reserved for divine beings. However, despite our extraordinary intelligence, humans continue to engage in self-destructive activities and struggle to address the mutual threats endangering our planet.
One of the greatest challenges faced by humanity is the looming ecological collapse, which has the potential to devastate life on Earth. Additionally, the rapid advancement of technology poses a second significant threat, particularly artificial intelligence (AI). These powerful tools risk undermining human civilization and contributing to worldwide instability.
Regrettably, instead of uniting to confront these shared challenges, humans appear further divided than ever, resulting in societal instability and rising international tensions.
Not So Simple
The increasing complexities of technology have led to an era where not even advanced AI systems can predict the future with certainty. AI's infancy, for example, has already given rise to intelligent systems capable of making decisions autonomously and creating novel ideas. As this technology continues to evolve at a staggering pace, there is growing concern about its potential implications for society.
The sobering truth is that AI is the first technology in human history that can make decisions without human intervention. This unique capacity requires thorough oversight and regulation to ensure that it does not pose a risk to safety, ethics, and privacy. However, the international landscape of competing interests and varying levels of governmental power presents a significant obstacle to enforcing such regulatory measures.
Ultimately, the convergence of humanity's wisdom, our environmental peril, and the breakneck speed of technological advancements paints a sobering picture of the future. Navigating these challenges will demand unprecedented cooperation and foresight from all corners of society, lest we continue down a path of self-destruction and strife.
The AI Frontier
AI: The Baby T-Rex
AI is still just a tiny baby, having only been deployed in the real world for about 10 years. Its current stage is comparable to the organic evolution of life on Earth, where AI technology is like the amoebas, still four billion years away from the complexities of human life. Despite this, the rapid development and evolution of AI are happening at a much faster time scale and may only take a few years or decades to achieve capabilities currently unimaginable.
Decision-Making Machines
AI represents the first technology that can make decisions by itself, which makes it unique from any previous invention. Traditional technologies either empower or spread human ideas and actions, never having independent decision-making abilities. But AI is taking power away from humans, having the potential to make important decisions with real-life consequences, such as loan approvals or even controlling weaponry. This shift of power and responsibility accelerates the need for regulation and safety measures in the deployment of AI technology.
AI's New Ideas
The creation of new ideas is another unprecedented characteristic of artificial intelligence. Older technological advances like the printing press, radio, or television, merely broadcast ideas generated by human minds. In contrast, AI can not only create new ideas but possibly even author completely new religious texts or philosophical works, as if written by a superhuman intelligence. This potential illustrates the increasing influence and power of AI in shaping the future of humanity, whether for better or for worse and emphasizes the urgency of properly managing its growth and impact on society.
AI Regulation Challenges
Buying Time
The rapid advancement of AI technology has surprised even industry experts, with powerful new generations of AI being developed faster than anticipated. This speed presents a significant challenge to humanity, as our organic, cyclical nature requires time for adaptation. In order to have a fighting chance, governments need to intervene and buy time by regulating AI technology, particularly its deployment into society.
Deployment Vs Development
It is important to distinguish between regulating the development and deployment of AI technology. While regulating development is difficult due to nationalistic interests and the potential for an arms race – with each government insisting that their rivals are already developing dangerous technology – regulating deployment is a more feasible goal. Governments should be responsible for ensuring that new AI systems go through rigorous safety checks before being allowed into their respective societies, similar to the processes in place for new drugs, vehicles, or other potentially dangerous products.
This approach would allow the development of AI to continue while buying humanity precious time to understand and adapt to the rapidly changing landscape. This could ultimately result in more thoughtful, safer, and more ethical integration of AI technology into the fabric of human society.
Unlikely Cooperation
Arms Race Dilemma
In today's world, we face a dilemma with the rapid development of AI, as nations are locked in an arms race. Each government holds the belief that if they do not create dangerous technology, their rivals will outpace them, causing them to fall behind. This results in an unwinnable situation where collaboration and regulation of AI development become more difficult and unlikely.
The humor in this situation is how, despite our species' incredible intellect, we find ourselves doing such seemingly foolish things. Our collective intelligence has brought us to an era where we have the power to act like gods in terms of creation and destruction, and yet we still engage in self-destructive behaviors.
Safety Checks Required
To combat this dilemma, there is an urgent need for governments to enforce regulations on the deployment of AI. This involves implementing thorough safety checks and ensuring that new AI solutions are not introduced into society without first going through a rigorous process, much like how drugs and vehicles are currently regulated.
However, even when addressing the deployment of AI, different governments have varying interests, and cooperation remains a challenge. Ideally, research and development of AI would also be regulated, but in the face of national competition and distrust, it may be too difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, focusing on regulating the deployment of AI within governments' own territories is a vital step towards protecting society from unintended consequences.
By imposing these safety checks and seeking unlikely cooperation between governments, we may have a fighting chance to slow down AI's rapid progress and give ourselves the necessary time to adapt to this new frontier that is transforming every aspect of our lives.
